Monthly Archives: December, 2016

Trump Beat the Pollsters, So Here’s What You Can Learn From It

December 21st, 2016 Posted by Behavioral Data 0 thoughts on “Trump Beat the Pollsters, So Here’s What You Can Learn From It”

After Donald Trump was elected president last month, many pollsters had to eat their words. In fact, one prominent expert, Princeton professor Sam Wang, went on live TV to follow through on a pledge he had made before the election: that he would eat a bug if Trump won. “After all, I was wrong. A lot of people were wrong,” said Wang, before munching on a cricket.

All bets aside, the election results were a jarring reminder of the limitations of polling as a science. Polling is a small numbers game. In order to predict the outcome of an election, pollsters divide up voters into demographic categories (age, geographic location, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and so on). Based on responses from a small subset of people in each group, they infer what the population at large is going to decide.

In the era of big data, that sounds a little backwards.

If your company is basing its online sales strategies on similar calculations, it’s got it all wrong. The best way to determine the outcome of a consumer is to watch what he or she does across different devices, and across time, and map that onto past observed behaviors. The more data you have on prior customer behaviors and their outcomes, the more accurate your next prediction will be.

This type of demographics-agnostic calculus is what’s called behavioral analytics. With it, you’ll never have to eat a bug on live TV.


This is Going To Be Yuge

December 15th, 2016 Posted by Analytics 0 thoughts on “This is Going To Be Yuge”

Behavioral analytics is great, let me tell you. I am firm believer in behavioral analytics. This is going to be yuge. If you want to make your business great again, you gotta know who your customer is. It’s a huge problem when you don’t use behavioral analytics to know your customers. We need to take our customer back to being great again.

Your customers are good guys. But when they’re shopping online, they want good deals. They want you to give them good deals.

Now, I know what customers want. Trust me, I do. The reason why I know what customers want is that I get them. I get them because when they behave in a certain way on your site, I’ll know they’re not alone in behaving that way. I also know that if you take your time browsing you’re one type of customer, whereas if you instantly click on a certain type of product you’re another type of customer. And once I know what type of customer you are, I’ll know what you want because of what other customers before you, behaving similarly, wanted.

Now, this is not about identity. Black, white, young, old, rich, poor. When you go onto that website and you know what you want, you’re going to want the same deals, no matter who you are. It’s so simple once you know that you’ve got to target your deals to your consumers based on their behavior. It’s what they want and that’s what matters.

Let’s focus on making you great again, and your customers great again. Knowing what they want will make you a winner. The best part is you can even identify who your “rotten” visitors are (and believe me there are many). It’s a huge problem for companies.

You know you gotta win. I want you to win too. You do it by knowing who you’re talking to – by segmenting. Behavioral analytics is the way to go if you want to reach the right people.

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